Microsoft has claimed its Majorana chip program could deliver a scalable quantum computer by 2029, but a newly published scientific paper suggests the company may have misinterpreted its own experimental results.
A peer-reviewed paper by Dr. Henry Legg of the University of St Andrews, published this week in the journal Nature, concludes that the Topological Gap Protocol (TGP) framework Microsoft developed to infer the quantum state of theoretically existing Majorana particles is flawed.
“Last year, Microsoft claimed to have achieved something as precise as a fine Swiss watch,” Dr. Legg said. “But when I looked under the hood, it seemed more like a jumble of mismatched parts.”
Dr. Legg argued that the results Microsoft’s TGP software analyzed could be explained by other physical phenomena, and that bias may have been introduced during the data selection process — leading Microsoft’s researchers to draw incorrect conclusions.
“A signal was clearly observed, but it did not look like the revolutionary breakthrough Microsoft claimed,” he said. “Unlike in the press, most researchers in the field were skeptical of Microsoft’s claims from the start. This critique simply provides formal academic support for that skepticism.”
Majorana Particles: The Foundation of Microsoft’s Quantum Strategy
Achieving Majorana zero modes — which are resistant to the errors that arise in conventional qubit-based designs — has been central to Microsoft’s quantum computing strategy for more than two decades. The approach depends on the real-world existence of Majorana fermions, a type of subatomic particle first proposed by Italian physicist Ettore Majorana in 1937. To date, however, the particle remains theoretical and has never been experimentally confirmed.
In 2018, Microsoft announced that its researchers had found evidence supporting the existence of Majorana fermions. Initially hailed as a breakthrough, the paper was later retracted after challenges emerged over how the data had been interpreted. Nature’s editors subsequently concluded that “the results of this paper are not consistent with the interpretation of Majorana zero modes in the reported devices.”
Despite that setback, Microsoft continued its research. In 2025, the company published a new paper in Nature claiming it had developed the Majorana 1 chip — described as a new “transistor for the quantum age” based on Majorana principles.
Earlier this month, Microsoft unveiled a follow-up product, Majorana 2. The company stated it had used AI to improve reliability by 1,000 times compared to the previous chip, adding: “Based on this progress, we expect to be able to build a scalable quantum computer by 2029 — cutting our previous timeline in half.”
The publication of Dr. Legg’s latest paper has put Microsoft back on the defensive.
“This paper simply formalizes what most researchers in the field felt at the time of the original announcement,” Dr. Legg said. “I felt it was important to put these concerns on the record as a formal scientific critique, and having the paper accepted through peer review is meaningful.”
He clarified that his criticism concerns the interpretation of transport data and the analytical framework, not the raw experimental data itself. He also noted that Microsoft has not yet fully released its raw data in a way that would allow independent verification.
Microsoft: “We Are Confident in Our Research and Roadmap”
In an emailed statement, Microsoft said it stands by its position that Majorana technology represents a meaningful step toward practical quantum computing. The company cited its ongoing collaboration with DARPA’s US2QC (Underexplored Systems for Utility-Scale Quantum Computing) program as evidence of its progress.
Dr. Chetan Nayak, Microsoft Technical Fellow and Vice President of Quantum Hardware, said: “We are confident in our research results and our roadmap. Ultimate success means actually building a scalable quantum computer, and we are confident in our ability to execute on that roadmap.”
He added: “Skepticism and rigorous scrutiny are core to the scientific process, and we have welcomed and supported scrutiny from the academic community. We have engaged actively in the related discussions, and our detailed rebuttal paper has also been published in Nature following peer review.”
Microsoft is not alone in pursuing quantum computing hardware. Google, IBM, and Amazon Web Services are each developing quantum computing hardware using different approaches.
Even if Microsoft’s hardware technology matures on its stated schedule, however, industry observers expect the path to practical enterprise deployment to be gradual rather than sudden.
